Commercial Loans and Fun Blog

George is Retarded Zoom Beer Party This Wednesday Night at 7:00 ET

Posted by George Blackburne on Mon, May 22, 2023

Beer Party:

About six months ago, I boldly predicted that China would invade Taiwan this past April because of the gentler tides in the South China Sea.  If I was wrong, I promised to hold another Zoom Beer Party where you guys could roast me.  Hahahaha!

My last Zoom Beer Party was about two years ago, and we had a blast.  We had about 28 or so guys and ladies.


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My "George is Retarded" Party will therefore be held this Wednesday night, May 24th, at 7:00 E.T.  You can access this party here:  George is Retarded Beer Party

The meeting ID number is:  538 406 8858
The security code is:  8ktUmf

The "cost of admission" is that you have to hold up to the group a beer, a glass of wine, or a mixed drink.  "Nobody leaves here without singing the blues."  That was a line from a hilarious scene in the old movie, Adventures in Babysitting, where gangsters chased the lovely babysitter (Elizabeth Shue) into a blues club.  It was a scary place, and they wouldn't let her leave with her kids until she sang a blues song.  So nobody leaves here without singing the blues.  Haha!

The party will last 40 minutes.


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What We'll Cover:

China's economy.  The increasing cost of the old single child policy and China's aging grandparents.  One couple caring for four parents, plus their kid.  The young Chinese who are "lying flat."  The lack of savings among young people and the recent Chinese Twitter post.  

The slowing Chinese economy and its dangers.  Maybe the slowing economy will discourage Xi from attacking; but if the economy get really bad, Xi will likely try to unite the Chinese people with an attack on Taiwan.

Xi has promised an invasion in 2027.  Even Donald Trump brought up World War III this month.  You can love him or hate him, but Trump has "put the issue in play."


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What I got wrong with my April prediction:  The need to win in space first.

China's new weapons:  Anti-satellite lasers, China's new space plane and its robotic arm, what China just dropped off in space (???), and its new hypersonic stealth drone and its ability to pinpoint the coordinates of our carriers.

The recent surprising success of the Patriot Missile System against incoming hypersonic missiles.  Not all of the news is bad for the U.S.

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Elon Musk, his new toilet, and his bodyguards.  The Chinese and Russian assassination target number one?


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We'll Also Cover Some Commercial Loan Business:

Remember, I have been through a tight money market before.  That's why I have yellow sticky notes all over my office, "Money Will Be Very Tight."  

This banking crisis is far from over, and money is going to get very tight.  The Federal Reserve is on track to suck $2 trillion more out of the money supply over the next 24 months.

What happens to the commercial loan business when banks are turning down 85% of all commercial loan requests and loan-to-value ratios on commercial loans fall to just 48%?  Remember, I've been through this before.

We'll discuss "bowties", an old-time type of commercial loan where the payments are MUCH less than interest-only.


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We will discuss the rise of commercial hard money and a possible flood of foreclosures.

How does a commercial mortgage broker or a commercial real estate investor survive in such a market?

The United States is also slowly re-arming, which will cost ten of trillions of dollars.  What happens to the economy when all other credit is crowded out?  

Where do you invest?  How do you pay off balloon payments on commercial properties?  What happened between 1980 and 1982?  We'll discuss.

Then I'll open it up for questions.


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And Finally We'll Just Have Fun:

I'll tell a few jokes to lighten the mood, and then I'll share some fun stuff (baseball, etc.).

Then its your time to share some jokes, some stories, some predictions, and some observations.  

I think the 40 minutes will go quickly.  My last Zoom meeting ran on for 90 minutes, and all but four or five attendees stayed until the very end.  Everyone was clearly having fun.  But this time I only have forty minutes of Zoom time, so things cannot run over.

Please join us!  My "George is Retarded" Zoom Beer Party will be held this Wednesday night, May 24th, at 7:00 E.T.  You can access this party here:  George is Retarded Beer Party.

The meeting ID number is:  538 406 8858
The security code is:  8ktUmf


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Topics: Beer Party