Commercial Loans and Fun Blog

I read a fascinating statistic in a Bloomberg article this week.  Commercial real estate values soared 19% last year, the second largest annual increase in history.  Too bad the statistic is utter nonsense.

Bloomberg's statistics were based on closed sales of commercial real estate; but what about the 35% of all commercial properties that are sitting there with no tenant and no buyer?  These older commercial buildings definitely have not appreciated.

Take a drive around your town.  You'll see vacant commercial and industrial space everywhere.  I postulated in a recent blog post that most of these older commercial buildings may never a have tenant again.  They will be bulldozed before they are ever again leased. 

Here is what is really happening.  Commercial real estate is separating into two halves.  The top 40% of all commercial real estate that is modern and well-located enough to attract and keep tenants is appreciating.  With ten-year Treasuries yielding under 4.5%, investors are desperate for yield.  They are therefore bidding prime commercial real estate sharply up in value.

The bottom 35% of all commercial real estate is vacant, and it is not selling for any price.  Therefore the value of older, vacant commercial real estate has not been counted in Bloomberg's statistics.

This bottom tier of commercial real estate is not generating any income, and a good argument can be made that many older, vacant commercial buildings are less than worthless.  The owner has to pay real estate taxes.  The owner has to heat these buildings in the winter.  The owner has to maintain fire and liability insurance on the building. The owner has to maintain the aging roof and pay for a security system.  Many absentee managers have to pay for property management.

The truth is that if a relative died today and left me a large, vacant, older commercial building in a non-prime location, I would refuse the legacy.  I wouldn't want the large, old commercial property, even if its replacement cost was millions of dollars.  All it would ever do would be to cost me money.

Bottom line:  Commercial real estate is separating.  Prime commercial real estate is smoking hot.  Many older, vacant commercial properties are now worse less worthless.

Commercial REO's Must be Deeply Discounted to Finally Sell

Take the very same commercial property. If you sell it retail - the normal kind of sale to another investor - the commercial property may sell for $1 million. Ahhh, but if the lender unwisely let's word slip out to the real estate brokers in town that the property is a foreclosure, the commercial lender will be lucky to fetch $600,000 for the exact same property. Why? As soon as the investing world learns that the property is an REO, every potential buyer wants a 40% discount.

There is a price, however, at which every commercial property can be sold. It's the price where the commercial property finally clears the market. "Clearing the market" is a price so low that a buyer can finally be found.

Liquidation is a term that is very similar to clearing the market. Liquidation means taking an asset and reducing it to cash. For example, let's suppose a finance company repossesses a living room set sold on an installment sale (sold for 12 or 24 monthly payments). The finance company will then liquidate the used furniture; in other words, sell it, in order to pay off its unpaid debt.

Hard money commercial lenders are taking a terrible beating during the Great Recession because first commercial real estate fell by 40%. Then every potential buyer of the property wants an additional 40% discount off the already-discounted fair market value of the property because the property is an REO.

As the owner of a commercial hard money lender, Blackburne & Sons, I can tell you that it's maddening.

Are you a potential commercial borrower? You should download our important, free, whitepaper, How to Close a Commercial Loan During the Great Commercial Lending Drought.

Are you a mortgage broker? Download our free Commercial Loan Placement Kit that includes a list of 200 hungry commercial lenders, a Commercial Loan Placement Checklist, an important whitepaper entitled, How to Place a Commercial Loan When Banks Are Too Terrified to Lend, and our webinar on Structured Finance. This kit is free!

Are you commercial borrower? Wish you too could get a copy of this free list of 200 commercial lenders?

Are you an accredited investor? If so, what are you doing with your IRA? Accredited investors are earning 11% to 13% in first trust deed investments.

Do you need a commercial loan right now? You can submit your commercial loan to 750 different commercial lenders in just four minutes using CommercialMortgage.com. And this commercial mortgage portal is free!

Follow George Blackburne on Twitter.

Commercial Loan Underwriters Can Now See a Street View of Many Properties From Their Desk

As the owner of a hard money commercial lender, Blackburne & Sons, I have to try to underwrite commercial loans located all across the country. It's economically infeasible for me to fly to New York City from Sacramento to inspect a commercial property when the loan amount is only $400,000. Nevertheless, we have learned the hard way that if you don't "touch" every property that you finance, the consequences can often be disastrous.

Fortunately, Google Maps provides a partial solution. If you type in the property address into Google Maps and then click on the Satellite button in the upper-right-hand corner of the map, you can see an aerial view of the property. This allows you to see if the property is located in the Boonies or in a thriving commercial area. You can use the wheel on your mouse to zoom in on the property from the sky. You can send your investors or potential clients a link to the satellite image of the property by clicking on the Link button, directly above the upper-right-hand corner of the satellite image. Just cut and paste that link right into your presentation.

To see a street level picture of the subject property, look at the column to the left of the map. If the property is located in a major city, you will often see a street-level picture of the property. (By the way, never trust Google to point you to the exact building because the addresses are OFTEN wrong.) To see up and down the street, to get a feel for the neighborhood, click on the "More" hyperlink directly below the street-level picture of the property. Then click on the choice, "Street View".

You can also create a link to this street view of the property by clicking on the Link button, directly above the upper-right-hand corner of the street view image.  Here is such a link. (Please allow it 20 seconds to load.)

Be sure to take a moment to play with this. If you move your cursor around, you can enjoy a 360 degree view of the property and the neighborhood. These are wonderful tools. Reminder to myself: Be sure to use them!

Are you a potential commercial borrower? You should download our important, free, whitepaper, How to Close a Commercial Loan During the Great Commercial Lending Drought.

Are you a mortgage broker? Download our free Commercial Loan Placement Kit that includes a list of 200 hungry commercial lenders, a Commercial Loan Placement Checklist, an important whitepaper entitled, How to Place a Commercial Loan When Banks Are Too Terrified to Lend, and our webinar on Structured Finance. This kit is free!

Are you commercial borrower? Wish you too could get a copy of this free list of 200 commercial lenders?

Are you an accredited investor? If so, what are you doing with your IRA? Accredited investors are earning 11% to 13% in first trust deed investments.

Do you need a commercial loan right now? You can submit your commercial loan to 750 different commercial lenders in just four minutes using CommercialMortgage.com. And this commercial mortgage portal is free!

I often tell my students, "One of the best ways to close commercial loans is to read a summary of the deals that your commercial lender has recently closed.  This way you can discover your commercial lender's sweet spot - their favorite loan size, their favorite property type, and their favorite lending area."

The Pitreadie Digest is a commercial lending newsletter - written for investors, developers, and mortgage brokers - that covers about ten to twelve different commercial lenders in every issue.  This four-page newsletter comes out twice a month, and each issue includes all of the contact information for these 10 to 12 commercial lenders.

The newsletter describes the commercial loans that each lender has recently closed, their pricing, their likes, and their dislikes.  It also covers emerging industry trends, such as the reawakening of the CMBS industry or the explosion in the number of new hard money lenders.

For those of you who are developers or who work with developers, the service also covers equity providers.  For example, let's suppose you're a mortgage broker putting together a $10 million construction loan on a multifamily project in Washington, DC.  Your developer has a lot of experience, and he is contributing 20% of the cost of the project.  If the construction lender insists on more equity, using the Pitreadie Digest you might be able to find an equity provider to contribute more equity.

You Can Use Google to Give Your Lender an Aerial View of Your Commercial Loan

A mortgage broker submitted a hard money commercial loan to Blackburne & Sons today by email. It was a land loan request, and normally we would not even look at a land loan request; but the mortgage broker did a very clever thing. He included a Google map of the property.

Better yet, the map was a satellite view of the land. By moving the roller on my mouse, I was able to look closer and closer at the land. What I found was interesting. The land was right on a major thoroughfare.  Sewer, water, and power was already available to the site. Most of the surrounding land was already improved. All of the surrounding buildings were modern and attractive, and the area looked reasonably affluent. Now I don't know if we are going to make a land loan during the Great Recession, but its fair to say that because the broker provided a link to a satellite view of the property, this land loan might actually have a chance.

So how do you attach a zoom-able satellite map to your commercial loan packages?

1. Go to Google.com
2. At the top left of the page, click on "Maps"
3. Type in the property address
4. In the upper right-hand corner of the map, click on the square labeled, "Satellite"
5. Using the roller on your mouse, zoom in to the right height
6. In the upper-right-hand corner of the map, find a box labeled, "Map". Right above it you'll see the "Link" button. Click on it.
7. Cut and paste the link right into your email to your lender.
8. Voila!

Every commercial loan you now submit should include a link to a satellite view of the property.

Are you a mortgage broker? Download our Commercial Loan Placement Kit that includes a list of 200 commercial lenders, our Commercial Loan Placement Checklist, our wonderful whitepaper, How to Place a Commercial Loan When Banks Are Terrified, and a webinar on Structured Finance. Now you can finally learn understand mezzanine loans, preferred equity, and venture equity. This kit is free!

Mortgage brokers: Have you ever dreamed of becoming a hard money? Four hour video course, How to Find Your Own Private Mortgage Investors.

Are you an accredited investor? What are you doing with your IRA? Private investors are earning 11% to 13% in first mortgage investments.

My son came to me recently and showed me a loan request for just $300,000 on a building that once cost $4 million to construct.  The building was a vacant 100,000 office building in the old downtown area of a Rust Belt city, and it was actually in reasonable shape.  How could you go wrong risking $300,000 loan on a building that would cost $4 million to replace?  The answer will trouble you:

"Son, I hope I'm wrong," I told him, "But I greatly fear that the economy will enter the second down-leg of this economic slump before Christmas.  By March of next year, they will no longer be calling this slump the Great Recession, but rather the Second Great Depression."

It's easy to see the future when you understand that the multiplier effect works in reverse.  In 2006 I published my economics thriller, The Reverse Multiplier Effect - When Crushing Deflation Destroys America.  It predicted much of what actually transpired during the Great Recession - including the 40% decline in real estate values and the millions of foreclosures.   Everything makes sense once you understand that the multiplier effect works in reverse.  (You business school grads studied fractional banking and the multiplier effect.  If a bank makes a new loan, the money supply increases by 20 times because of the multiplier effect, remember?)

"George, you're a whacko.  Commodity prices are soaring.  We're on the verge of hyperinflation."

Commodity prices have peaked, and hyperinflation is impossible when the banks take in more in loan payments than they make in new loans.  Forget about inflation.  Seriously.  Unless you're younger than 25 years old, inflation will never again threaten your wealth (or bail you out of oppressive debt).

Why?  Because the multiplier effect works in reverse.  If a bank takes in $50 million in payments and only makes $40 million in new loans, far more than just $10 million gets sucked out the country's money supply.  Twenty times that amount - $200 million - gets sucked out of the nation's money supply. 

Folks, the Fed will probably have to create another $10 trillion in new money over the next five years in order to prevent a deflationary collapse of the economy, and it STILL won't create more than a trivial amount of inflation.  

Okay, back to our discussion of commercial real estate.  Look around at all of the older commercial buildings in your town.  Most of those that are currently vacant will never have tenants again.  These buildings arguably now a negative value because it costs money to secure and maintain them.

When the double dip hits, owners are likely to give up trying to heat these buildings in the winter.  The pipes will eventually burst, mold will grow, the roofs will leak, more mold will grow, and then vandals will loot them.

As disturbing as this sounds, most of the older, empty commercial buildings in your town will never have tenants again.

I am writing you today from my hotel room at the Mirage in Las Vegas.  Yesterday I attended Leonard Rosen's 23rd National Hard Money Conference, where I served as one of the panelists during the Round Table discussion.

I simply loved this conference.

I have owned Blackburne & Sons, a hard money commercial lender, for more than 30 years.  I thought I knew it all.  Oops.  Not even close. 

Leonard Rosen does a pretty brilliant thing at these conferences. He doesn't pretend to know it all.  Instead, he brings in five to six experts on various topics about starting a hard money mortgage company.  Then he let's the experts do the teaching. 

For example, I was fascinated as his securities law expert, the Honorable Jonathan Hornik of LaRocca Hornik, spoke about how to form a mortgage pool.

Then Leonard's son, Matt, gave a fascinating presentation on Social Media.  I learned to stop selling on Twitter, LinkedIn, and YouTube in favor of giving my readers helpful information.  "People only buy from people they like and they trust."

And Leonard Rosen himself is one of the warmest, most generous men I have ever met.  He has created numerous millionaires, and many of them came back to his conference to share their verbal proof stories.  Using Leonard's training, they have built thriving hard money shops, with tens of millions of dollars in loan servicing portfolios.

If you have ever debated whether to attend one of Leonard Rosen's National Hard Money Conferences ... do it!  By the way, there were attendees from as far away as Singapore and Australia.

One of the smartest men I know in all of commercial mortgage finance is Jay Rollins of JCR Capital - an opportunity fund making bridge loans and opportunistic commercial real estate loans nationwide.  

If I am a minor guru on the subject commercial mortgage finance, then Jay is a guru's guru.  As recently as five years ago, I personally flew out to Denver and paid Jay Rollins oodles of money, just to sit down with me for a single day and explain advanced commercial real estate finance. It was worth every penny.  Jay Rollins is one those big-brains who is able to take a complicated subject and reduce it to layman's terms.

Jay Rollins recently released his company's annual commercial mortgage market outlook, and he was gracious enough to allow me to republish it below.  Please study it carefully.  His observations are always right on the money.

JCR CAPITAL'S COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE MARKET OUTLOOK 

Major Themes for 2011

1.     2011 is the year we’ve been waiting for: The resurgence of the conduit market, a steady flow of bank notes, and an improving economy have sparked the beginning of the “new normal” era.

2.     There are three markets right now:

o   Trophy/core assets

o   Multifamily assets

o   Everything else

3.     The deleveraging process:  While trophy assets have increased in value due to investors chasing yield, non-trophy assets continue to go through a painful process of deleveraging that will take years to complete.

4.     Capital:  New capital is forming but it will not be able to compensate for the capital lost in the financial meltdown of 2008.

5.     Macro economy:  The “double dip” recession fears have subsided.  Interest rate increases and lagging job growth are the two biggest potential land mines.

Real Estate Distress:  Circa 2011

1.     Note sales:  2011 will be the year of the DPO (discounted pay off) and note sale.  If you have been waiting, the time is now for discounted note payoffs and third party note sales. 

2.     Extend and pretend is over:  Legacy lenders are tired of extending with no hope of repayment.  The market has recovered enough to where lenders are pushing borrowers to solve their problems.  Recapitalizations will now occur in earnest.

3.     Distress is not going away:  The government’s “Save the Banks” policy and the slow methodical process of the CMBS special servicers have ensured a pipeline of distress that should last at least 36 months.

Real Estate Economy:  Overview

• Cap rate compression:  Cap rates have compressed on the best assets – this has compression has occurred due to investors chasing yield, not due to real estate fundamentals.  Compressed cap rates are occurring on “trophy assets” in gateway cities that have an excellent location and great rent rolls.  Real estate assets that do not fall into this category have wide variations in pricing, leverage, and structure.

• Government subsidized products:  All paved roads lead back to the government.  If there are government subsidies, capital will follow. 

• The bottom?  We have hit the bottom and we are standing on it.  The question now is, how long will we stay at the bottom?  Assets continue to trade below replacement costs, new construction is very limited, and predicting occupancy and lease rates going forward will be challenging.

Real Estate Capital Markets

• CMBS:  The rebuilding of the CMBS market is the primary contributor to this year’s optimism.  We have counted over 20 new CMBS programs that are operating, or soon to be operating.  We don’t believe that there is enough qualified product to satisfy all of these platforms.  Today, CMBS looks like: 

o   10 year fixed rate financing

o   LTV:  70-75%

o   Debt service coverage:  1.25x

o   Underwriting:  Looking closely at rent roll, occupancy and future roll

o   The projection for 2011 is $40-50 billion, down from the peak of $250 billion. 

The question is, will the underwriting constraints significantly change (loosen), and when?

• Banks:  Bank closures are going slowly. Most banks serving the middle market continue to struggle with legacy assets on their balance sheets.  Banks who serve the middle market will not be a capital factor in 2011.  

• Life companies:  With no competition in the past few years, life companies will begin to feel the conduit pressure.   

• Government agencies:  Government subsidies on multifamily loans are worth 200-300 basis points in cap rate value.  While one can question whether or not this is good government policy, it’s good for those in the multifamily business. 

• Private capital:  Private capital is forming and will continue to form in order to take advantage of the capital dislocation.  Private capital is not highly leveraged, which causes rates to be higher than historical norms.  As leverage comes back, private capital rates will decline.  For now, expect 7-14% depending on product type, location, sponsor, and asset strength as the norm for private capital.

• New York/DC:  Class A properties in these urban markets have recovered.  Lenders will drop rates and increase proceeds in order to be in these markets. 

• Other major markets:  Pick your name – “gateway cities”, “coastal cities”, “24-hour cities”; they are all a cut above the rest in the eyes of the capital providers.

• “Everywhere else”:  These secondary and tertiary markets are not getting a lot of attention from capital providers.  Nonetheless, these are the markets of opportunity with for those with local expertise, capital and a sound business plan.  

• Occupancy and rental rates:  Without job growth, properties will continue to cannibalize each other.

1.     Financing illiquid sponsors who know local markets and control the assets.

2.     Providing capital to buyers of non-performing loans

3.     Recapitalization and restructuring of overleveraged legacy loans

4.     Buying and financing “non-trophy” fee simple real estate at a reduced basis.

Jay Rollins is the President of JCR Capital, a real estate finance company that specializes in providing debt and equity to middle market transactions.  Please see www.jcrcapital.com for more information.

I just finished recording a ten-minute primer on structured finance - including mezzanine loans, preferred equity, and venture equity.  If you have ever wondered, "What on earth is a mezzanine loan?" or "What is preferred equity?", this short video will explain in layman's terms what they are about.

If you are trying to buy a foreclosed property in California or a portfolio of REO properties in California, Blackburne & Sons is very interested in financing your purchase.

If you are buying a single foreclosed property or an REO in California, you may  qualify for a bridge loan of up to 60% of the actual purchase price.  The rate is typically 8.9%, and the loan fee is 3.5 points, for a one-year fix-and-flip loan.  The maximum loan is $10 million, and these bridge loans have no prepayment penalty.  We're sorry, but this program is ONLY available in California. 

For more details on our California fix-and-flip loans, please email me, George Blackburne III, the founder and president, at george@blackburne.com.  In the subject line of the email, please insert REO Loan Request, and please be sure to include your phone number and a brief description of your deal.

If you are buying a portfolio of foreclosed properties or REO's, our California line-of-credit program is very useful.  You can use it to buy several REO's at a time, and as the properties sell off, you can re-use the line-of-credit to purchase more.  The pricing is typically the same. 

We're sorry, but this line-of-credit program is only available in California.  Please take careful note - ONLY IN CALIFORNIA.  We don't even know of another lender offering a similar line-of-credit program outside of California, so there is no point in applying.

For more details on our line-of-credit program for the purchase of California REO's, please email me, George Blackburne III, the founder and president, at george@blackburne.com.  In the subject line of the email, please insert Line of Credit To Purchase REO's.  Please be sure to include your phone number and a brief description of your deal.