Commercial Loans and Fun Blog

There is good news coming, so don't go out and kill yourself. [Chuckle]

If the U.S. and China go to war, your life will become hell.  You will mourn, along with your neighbors who had children in the Navy, the loss of 10,000 sons and daughters when the Chinese use their hypersonic missiles to sink at least two of our carriers and dozens of our smaller warships.

Your combined income tax rate will probably increase by 15% (from 30% to 45%), as the Federal government struggles to replace the 40 warships it lost in the opening hours of the war.

You will be lucky to keep your job.  Unemployment could easily soar to 20%, as worried and/or broke U.S. consumers stop buying.  If you do keep your job, you will definitely NOT be getting a raise.

After the first ten days of the war, the average American will finally understand our massive shortage of missiles, as our carriers, warships, and marines are forced to retreat across the map.  We can't replace these missiles because we lack the rare earth magnets needed to make them.

The cost of imports will skyrocket.  Everything will cost dramatically more.  The Dollar Store will become the Five Dollar Store.  Inflation might reach 20%.

Foreign investors will flood out of Treasury bonds, as there is a genuine risk of default.  We could easily lose a war with China.  Real estate will fall by 45%, between an initial 25% plunge, followed by a second, more prolonged 20% decline.  Once Hawaii has fallen, West Coast real estate will be in easy range of Chinese ship-mounted missiles.   

Interest rates will skyrocket.  Thirty-year Treasuries will probably soar to 12%.  Mortgage rates will be in the 14% range.  Loan-to-value ratios will plunge to 60%.  It almost won't matter.  No one will be buying houses or refinancing their sub-5% mortgages.

My wife keeps duct tape
handy to use on me.

Life is going to suck.

Now the Good News:

Xi Jinping, the President of China, the head of the CCP, and the Chairman of the Chinese Central Military Commission has effectively been deposed.

Right before the Fourth Plenum, Xi's rival and current head of the PLA, Zhang Youxia, deposed the nine highest ranking generals and admirals loyal to Xi.  By the end of the Fourth Plenum, Xi Jinping had been stripped of his power, but not his titles.

The CCP's elders realize that China's economy is a disaster.  By shooting off his mouth and announcing his intention to go to war in 2027, Xi scared foreign investors into fleeing China, with their money.  Near-shoring and friend-shoring are now all the rage.

The consumer market in China also clammed up, as terrified Chinese citizens started hoarding their cash.  We have all heard of the empty Chinese malls and restaurants.  Everyone is hoarding cash for the war.

Fortunately, the party elders have reined in Xi.  Right now he is just a figurehead.  However, if Xi can provoke a war, he will be catapulted back into power.  Anyone resisting Xi's reinstatement as head of the military will be deemed a traitor.  "Rally around the flag, Boys!"

It reminds me of that scene in Braveheart, when the nobility of both sides were meeting for a parley before the Battle of Stirling Bridge.  When his men asked William Wallace (Mel Gibson), "Where are you going?" Braveheart replied, "I'm going to pick a fight." 

Right now Xi Jinping is sending his Naval and Merchant Marine cronies to pick a fight with the Filipinos, the Japanese, or the Taiwanese.  We are definitely not out of the woods yet.

I will explain why you should care.

Xi Jinping desperately wants the Chinese money supply to grow.  He needs private companies to borrow, invest, and spend.  The loan proceeds that are spent - perhaps in payment to the guy that makes rear blinkers for electric cars - end up in the next bank. 

The next bank keeps, say, 5% in reserve and lends out the rest - perhaps to the glass maker.  The next borrower pays its own suppliers - perhaps to the trucking company.  And so on, until that first loan creates twenty times as much new money.  This is the multiplier effect.  This is how new money is created in China, just like in the U.S.  

But here is where everything falls apart.  Suppose businesses are terrified of a pending war.  Xi Jinping has already announced that China is attacking Taiwan in the Spring of 2027, when the tides are right.

Why would a Chinese factory owner want to be deep in debt right before a major war?  Therefore, very few factory owners are borrowing right now.  Everyone is hoarding cash and battening down the hatches.

Now the scary stuff.

Did you know that the multiplier effect works in reverse?  If a bank takes in a loan payment but can't find a new borrower to borrow the money, twenty times as money is destroyed!  Destroyed.  Puff.  Burned to cinders.

It has to do with the fact that the first bank to make the payment above suddenly has less deposits on hand.  Remember, our original borrower withdrew money to make the payment.  In order to maintain its proper banking ratios, the paying bank must reduce the size of its loan portfolio.  

The easiest way to think of what happens next is that the paying bank must then call an outstanding loan.  (It actually just takes in some payments and doesn't re-loan that incoming dough.)  Some other borrower then has to reduce his bank balance and pay off the called loan. 

The third bank suddenly finds its deposit balance lower and calls in some more loans of its own.  And this continues until -

If a borrower in China makes a $100 loan payment, and the receiving bank does not immediately lend that $100 back out (perhaps because no company in China wants to borrow), a total of $2,000 - TWENTY TIMES larger - is sucked out the Chinese money supply. 

This is the Reverse Multiplier Effect - the multiplier effect working in reverse.  The reverse multiplier effect causes massive deflation, and its why interest rates in Switzerland, Germany, and Japan dropped below zero in 2008.

Once deflation takes hold, its hard to stop.  Why buy a car or house today when prices will only be lower next year.  Business activity and consumer spending dry up.  Workers get laid off.  Factories close.  More workers get laid off.  

Deflation in China will soon spread worldwide, as China imports less coal, oil, cooper, cattle, feedstock, and soybeans.  Soon the whole world will be feeling the pinch.  No one has any money anymore because its getting destroyed by the truckload daily in China.

Skeptical?  Banks in China have resorted to calling their best borrowers and begging them to borrow.  "Look, please-please borrow 30 million yen.  We will put the proceeds in an account at the bank, and you don't have to use it.  There will be ZERO interest and no fees.  Thirty days from now, simply pay off the loan.  This will keep Xi Jinping off our (butt).  We will have met our lending quota."

Folks, have you started to notice that no one has any money?  Money is drying up worldwide.  No one has any money.  U.S. banks are in a huge liquidity squeeze.  U.S. banks are borrowing vast sums for the Fed.

No one has any money.  Did I mention that no one has any money?

It really frustrates China that the world conducts so much of its trade in U.S. dollars.  The China are desperately trying to create an alternative currency backed partially by gold and much more by the Chinese yuan.

The Chinese have been buying up huge reserves of gold and silver, which has driven the price of gold over $4,000 per ounce and the the price of silver almost to $50.  

Then the Chinese created huge depositories where holders of their new currency will be able to exchange it for physical gold and paper yuan.  Their scheme won't work because no one trusts the Chinese.

Although Xi Jinping has been largely muzzled, he is still trying to get back into power.  If Xi can start a war, his political opponents must back him.  Otherwise, they would appear like traitors.

Japan has a beautiful new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, who is very much a hawk and pro-Taiwan.  "A Taiwan contingency is a Japanese contingency," she said, emphasizing Taiwan's proximity (just 110 km from Japan's Yonaguni Island) and its role in vital sea lanes for Japan's energy imports.

China was pissed.  Xue Jian, China's Consul General in Osaka, issued a social media post, in which threatened to cut off the neck of the lovely Mrs. Takaichi.  Holy poop.  Imagine if Marco Rubio, our Secretary of State, threatened to shoot Xi Jinping in the groin?  The threatening social media post has NOT been retracted.

 

Have you ever heard of the “Universe 25" Experiment?  It’s chillingly similar to today’s Western Society.  

In 1958, Dr. John Calhoun built a perfect utopia for mice - with unlimited food, entertainment, shelter, and no predators.  

The mice had everything they needed to thrive, but around Day 317, something went horribly wrong.  The social structure began to break down. 

Dominant males became aggressive and attacked others randomly.  Some females became violent against their young. 

Meanwhile, a group of males withdrew completely.  They stopped fighting, mating and interacting.  Calhoun called them, “The Beautiful Ones”.  

As these passive males increased,  birth rates collapsed, infant mortality rose to 100%, sexual behavior broke down, and pathological violence and cannibalism appeared, until every mouse died. 

Calhoun repeated the process 25 times.  Each time the ending was the same. 

The conclusion was disturbing:

When a population no longer needs to struggle for survival and no meaningful roles exist… social and behavioral collapse becomes inevitable.  

Universe 25 wasn’t about mice.  It was a warning.

This rare earths embargo is getting serious.  This morning, I read that two Volkswagon EV factories in Europe were temporarily idled in late 2025 because of a shortage of the AP550 electric motor, a part that relies on rare-earth magnets.

This Chinese "embargo" did NOT just come out the blue.  Here's the story from an X post by Zhao DaShuai, a Chinese socialist influencer and a member of the People’s Armed Police Propaganda Bureau (so she is obviously biased in favor of the Chinese):

Oooo, I'm really asking for it now.  Haha!

Zhao posted, "From a reliable source, on why Scott Bessent has a grudge against Li Chenggang:

During the negotiation in Spain, the US delegation threatened more semiconductor control measures against China.

Li Chenggang then picked up the phone and ordered the anti-monopoly investigation against Nvidia during the meeting, right in front of Scott Bessent's face. (George: Wow, this Chinese guy was not messing about.)

Sorry for the naughty word [Shame]

On the issue of US threatening to impose docking fees on ships built in China; we (the Chinese negotiators) told the US delegation, that we will impose crippling rare earth export control bans if they go through with it.

Bessent didn't believe the warning, he didn't even fully convey our (the Chinese) position on this matter to Trump, which is why Trump was so blindsided when the rare earth export control went into effect, claiming in his Truth Social post that, "It came out of nowhere."

It's obvious Trump would be angry at Bessent, who then needs to blame someone on the Chinese side - Li Chenggang who basically slapped Bessent in the face - is the obvious target."

Scott Bessent complained about Li Chenggang to the Chinese authorities and publicly called him "unhinged."  The outspoken trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, was dismissed as the country’s representative to the World Trade Organization.

But here's the deal:  The Chinese "embargo" on rare earths sales remains!

I don't think most people appreciate the devastating effect America' massive new docking fee is having on the Chinese ship building industry.

Just this week, Greek shipping magnate, Maria Angelicoussis, cancelled two Suezmax ship orders with China and moved them to South Korea.  No shipping concern today want to risk buying $85 million Chinese ships that could - because they were built in China - be sanctioned with impossible docking fees.

The Chinese are pissed.  Shipping has a been a HUGE industry for China.  This rare earths "embargo" might not go away easily. 

The folks on the news never talk about why World War II started.  In early 1941, the U.S. and the Dutch suddenly stopped selling oil to Japan.  At the time, Japan was at war with China, and they were desperate for Indonesian oil. 

The Japanese knew if they invaded Indonesia to seize their oil that the U.S. would declare war on them.  If they had to fight the U.S., the Japanese might as well land the first blow at Pearl Harbor. 

Francisca, my beautiful, exotic wife of 43 years is Dutch Indonesian.  Her dad married a pretty Indonesian girl.  In 1941, Cisca's grandfather was the highest ranking Shell Oil executive in Indonesia.  When the Japanese stormed the beaches of Indonesia, Cisca's grandfather ordered the destruction of all of Shell's oil wells.

When the Japanese found the wells burning, they were pissed.  They loaded Cisca's grandfather onto a truck, which headed out into the jungle.  He was never seen again. 

The Chinese Communist Party ("CCP") won't allow an economic depression.  They don't dare.  As a result, they are screwed.

The CCP has a contract with the Chinese people.  The people gave up their freedom of speech, their freedom of movement, and the right to choose their own political system.

In return, the CCP promised to improve the economic lives of the Chinese people every year.  For decades, the CCP delivered on this contract.  The economic lives of the Chinese people has improved considerably.

Great recessions, like forest fires, are necessary for an economy's long-term economic growth. Great recessions clear out the financial deadwood - zombie companies, over-leveraged companies, and inefficient ones.

A zombie company is an unprofitable business that generates just enough revenue to cover its operating expenses and interest payments but lacks the funds to invest in growth, innovation, or pay down its principal debt.

Zombie companies, often burdened by debt, rely on continued borrowing and external financing from banks or investors to remain in business. They are characterized by financial weakness, stagnant operations, and poor long-term prospects, posing a risk to the economy by consuming resources that could be used by healthier firms. 

A great many Chinese companies are now zombies; but the CCP won't allow these companies to fail because they provide employment to tens (hundreds?) of millions of workers.

In a great recession, these laid-off people would almost certainly riot. They already resent and hate the CCP.  All it would take would be a spark to send millions of furious protestors into the streets and over the walls of Zhongnanhai.

Zhongnanhai (Joe-nan-hai) is the central headquarters for the Chinese Communist Party and the State Council. It is a walled imperial garden where China's top leaders, including the General Secretary, conduct their daily official duties. It also serves as the official residence of some of the highest members of the CCP.

So China is doomed to an ever-falling GDP and stagnant corporate innovation.  The CCP will need to fall before the financial logjam can ever be cleared.

Why should you care if Russia loses the war in Ukraine?  How do you think your retirement accounts would fare if Putin suddenly dropped several tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine?  In the resulting panic and chaos, your fund managers would be forced to sell great stocks and great bonds for just 40 cents on the dollar in order to meet liquidity calls.   

By losing the war, I am talking about Russia retreating entirely from Ukraine and Crimea.  Russia does not even get to keep the Donbas.  Donbas, an abbreviation for "Donets Coal Basin," is a historical, cultural, and economic region in eastern Ukraine, known for its rich coal deposits and industrial development.

The Donbas region comprises the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and is central to the Russo-Ukrainian War, having been occupied by Russia-backed separatists since 2014 and later illegally annexed by the Russian Federation. This strategic area has been the site of intense fighting and remains a war zone.

Please grasp what I am saying.  Russia flat-out loses.

Ukraine has developed a domestically-made cruise missile called the Flamingo.  Apparently there was an imperfection in the initial paint job, and the missiles came out pink.  Hence, the name.

The Flamingo missile is a game changer.  It can deliver a payload of 2,540 lb.  That's more than a ton of explosives.  In comparison, the US-made Tomahawk cruise missile only has a payload of 992 lb.  The typical kamikaze drone carries only a 44 lb. payload.

The Flamingo is one big-ass missile.  

The Flamingo also has a range of 1,864 miles.  That's long enough to hit any target west of the Ural Mountains, where 78% of Russia's population and industrial might are located.

Ukraine is currently building several more Flamingo factories, and there is talk of Ukraine soon being able to build seven new Flamingo missiles per day.  Per day!  Imagine the havoc the country will be able to rain down on Russia's energy infrastructure and war factories.  Already, something like 19% of Russia's refining capacity has been knocked out.  

Why can't Russia just put air defense systems around each refinery?  Russia only has 50 remaining S-400 air defense systems left, and they can only build around 5 new ones per year (if they can get the chips).  Each S-400 system costs around $500 million wholesale.

Russia is also a huge country.  It cannot defend every important national defense facility.  Right now most of these S-400 systems are deployed protecting Russian cities.  Much of Russia's remaining industrial might is largely unprotected.

The next great financial crisis is long past due.
Our servicing income is why we have survived 45 years.

Ukraine has been absolutely smashing Russia's energy infrastructure this month.  There were reports of 4-hour (8-hour?) lines in Belarus for a two-gallon ration of gasoline.

Can't Russia just bomb Ukraine's Flamingo factory?  I am sure that they have been trying, but the factory is underground.  In addition, Ukraine is rushing to build clones of the factory in different underground locations.  Russia's fuel plants and munitions factories now have a limited life expectancy.  In a few months...

But wait, as they say in the Ronco commercials, there's more.  Poland just cut off rail traffic from China to Europe. For the last several years, most of China's goods arrived in Europe by rail.  No more, says the Poles.  The Trans-Belarusian Railway is now closed until China stops aiding Russia in the war.  If China were to cut off aid to Russia...

Now we get to the part when you sit up in alarm and pay attention.  Putin knows he is losing the war.  When India starts to feel the bite of an extra 25% import tariff from the US and soon Europe (far more costly than any cost savings from buying oil directly from Russia), it will stop buying Russian oil.  

Xi Jinping, Putin's friend for life (the Asian version of BFF), may also soon be toppled from power.  Zhang Youxia, the top general forcing Xi out of power, is not a big fan of Russia.  

If Putin loses in Ukraine completely, he has too many enemies to survive.  He is going to be voluntarily un-alived.  Rather than risk being thrown out of a 12-story building, I suspect that Putin is going to drop several tactical nukes on Ukraine's Flamingo factory.  It's what I would do, if I were a mass-murdering sociopath.

I still don't see what he did wrong...

If a nukes start dropping in Europe, I think I'd prefer
to be in real-estate-secured 12% first trust deeds.

Have you ever wondered why the Trump administration's new tariffs are not increasing inflation.  The average new tariff rate is around 15%.  Why isn't the price of imports increasing by 15%, thereby sharply increasing the average price of everything?

The answer is, the world economy has gotten so competitive that -

manufacturers are being forced to eat our tariffs.

They cannot increase the price of their products and still expect to sell anything.  The tariffs are forcing the world manufacturers to just give the U.S. 15% to 20% of the cost of every product they sell into the U.S.

This tariff income is not chicken feed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's projection as of July 2025 was that the U.S. had collected about $100 billion in tariff revenue in the first half of 2025.

He further estimated that our tariff income could grow to $300 billion by the end of 2025, if collections accelerate due to new tariffs. Remember, we just successfully reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU calling for a 15% tariff on goods sold to the U.S. and zero tariffs on U.S. goods sold into Japan and the EU.

To put this $300 billion in new tariff income into perspective, the entire 2024 tax revenue from corporate taxes was just $489 billion.

President Trump agreed to a very generous 20% tariff rate on Chinese goods coming in the U.S.  The negotiators on both sides seemed very pleased, and once the details were ratified, it was felt by all concerned that trade between the two countries would quickly return to normal.

But the details were never negotiated.  The problem is that no one in China knows who is in charge.  Xi Jinping is under political attack.  His supporters in the People's Liberation Army ("PLA") have all been purged.  Several top generals - Xi's highest ranking military allies - "committed suicide" in padded jail rooms.  Hmmm.

Xi Jinping destroyed China's economy when he threatened to invade Taiwan in 2027.  Foreign investors fled the country with their tens of billions of dollars.  Foreign manufacturers have stopped opening up new industrial plants, and many have moved their production to Vietnam, Indonesia, or Bangladesh.  China's top billionaires and entrepreneurs have fled the country.

The Chinese people stopped much of their consumer spending and started hoarding for a four-year war.  Xi has become a pariah, and the party elders wanted him out.

Zhang Youxia, the highest ranking general in the PLA, took over the military.  Troops loyal to Zhang entered Beijing.  Xi was to be forced to turn over power peacefully in August.  But then something odd happened.

The plan for Xi's ouster has met a snag.  Two "civilian" members of the CCP were to take over parts of Xi's job.  One was to be the head of the CCP.  The other was to the President of China.  Zhang was to be the third member of the triumvirate, as commander of the military forces.

But... the two civilian members of the triumvirate have gotten cold feet.  No one wants to lead China right now.  The economy is suffering from deflation, and it is a mess.  

So with his troops occupying Beijing (the tanks are underneath separate canvas covers), Zhang is in a real pickle.  No civilian want to take over the Chinese Communist Party and no civilian wants to become President.  Zhang himself is too old to do either job.

Zelensky is still the President of Ukraine.  Countries don't like to change leaders in the middle of a war.  If only China was at war with Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the United States...

No one would be purging Xi Jinping and placing him in a padded cell.  Just sayin'.

The World's Funniest Joke:

Q:  What did the Roman Senator say to the lion that ate his wife?

A:  Gladiator

To the West of China is Kazakhstan, an independent, oil-rich country that used to be part of the USSR.  Bordering Kazakhstan to the East is Xianjing, an autonomous region ruled by a high-ranking member of the Chinese Communist Party named Ma.  Ma has always been loyal to Xi Jinping

To those of you who have been skeptical of my reports that Xi Jinping has fallen from power, know now that Xi tried to escape to Kazakhstan.  More precisely, Xi's wife, a beautiful former singer, tried to arrange with Ma to cross into Kazakhstan with her husband.  Unfortunately for Xi, General Zhang - the guy who now controls the PLA - found out and just sacked Ma.  It sucks to be Xi right now.

I saw a video of some kind people saving
this little guy.  Bad day, for sure, but he lived.

"There is a new term in global politics, the concept of voluntarily un-aliving someone.  The term means to commit suicide against your will.  Wait, isn't that just murder masquerading as suicide?  As they say in Minnesota, "You betcha."

Putin's secret police like to voluntarily unalive people by throwing them off of buildings.  There has been an epidemic of Putin critics voluntarily unaliving themselves in the past few years.

The Chinese do the same thing.  A Chinese medical student was recently voluntarily unalived because he refused to meet his quota of harvested organs from Uyghur children.  He tried to go to the authorities with this horrific organized murder scheme, but the authorities made big money from the sale of harvested organs.  The unfortunate medical student decided to fly out of a window.

My bride and I saw two movies recently.  The first, Jurassic World Rebirth, was very exciting, and the special effects were superb.  I sat in a seat that actually shook every time a huge dinosaur took a step.  Scarlett Johansson was perfect as the mercenary security chief.  You should definitely see this blockbuster on the big screen.  It "only" cost about $190 million to make, and it is projected to bring in over $750,000 worldwide.

Then we saw Mission Impossible - The Final Reckoning.  Tom Cruise does all of his own stunts, and he must have stones the size of basketballs.  The final scene had him hanging upside down from a biplane as he dragged the pilot out of his seat.  Tom Cruise actually did that!  Like I said - basketballs.  Go see it!

The early Roman Republic, a democratic institution that had lasted for 400 years, fell because of lawfare.  (After Caesar, Rome became an empire.)  The enemies of Julius Caesar tried to strip Caesar of his legal protections as the governor of a province (Gaul).  Once stripped, they would have prosecuted Caesar in the incredibly corrupt Roman legal system and executed him.  Caesar had no choice but to lead his army across the Rubicon.

Trump is now President.  How many of his political enemies has President Trump prosecuted using lawfare?  None.  Not a single one.

You may absolutely hate Donald Trump and dream of shooting him twelve times in the groin (chuckle), but he has demonstrated that a President can still govern without resorting to lawfare.  You can absolutely hate him for a lot of other things, but not for this.  

I saw a similar aerial view over North Korea

When the next great recession hits, only those
mortgage companies with servicing income will survive.  

Do you remember me telling you never to invest in a hard money mortgage fund?  I pointed out every hard money fund in existence before each of the three great recessions - the S&L Crisis, the Dot-Com Meltdown, and the Great Recession - failed during the subsequent great recession. 

The problem with these funds is that they rely on continuing to earn their three-point loan fees on new loans.  When a great recession hits, everyone withdraws from the fund, and they have no new money with which to make loans.  Since invariably their management fee is tiny (they need 3% to 4% to survive), the sponsor fails.  The irony is that the underlying loans themselves usually recover in three to four years.

Well, the first hard money fund has now failed.  My sons got a call this week from a former investor who started off, "I should have listened to your father."  He had stopped getting interest checks.  No one at the fund was responding to his calls and emails.  When he finally went to their office, it was closed.  The poor guy's investment is toast.

We here at Blackburne & Sons do not use a fund.  Instead, we fractionalize our loans into $5,000 to $25,000 pieces.  If you invest with us, your ownership of that $300,000 commercial first mortgage is vested in your own name, as to your percentage of ownership - not in the name of some closed down fund beyond your control.  "Bob and Mary Smith, husband and wife, as to an undivided 2.37% ownership."  You even get title insurance.

Suppose Little Rocket Man hits Sacramento with a nuclear ballistic missile.  Poof.  My office and my beloved first born son are gone.  You, as an investor, would merely contact the other owners of the mortgage (we give you a list) and together you would hire a local bookkeeper to collect the mortgage payments.  

Blackburne & Sons, founded in 1980, has survived all three of the above great recessions.  We boast of charging the largest loan servicing fee in the industry.  Wait, what?  The largest?  Yup.  When all of our hard money competitors are failing in droves, like they did in 2008, we will just keep plugging along.  Some horse are mudders.  They beat faster horses in the rain and mud.  We're mudders.  Picture me and Boys are covered in mud.  Haha! 

Some of you guys think I am nuts because of my terror of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.  Folks, their economy is collapsing.  Many of their banks are rationing withdrawals.  It was the government's job to make life a little better for the Chinese people every year.  Things are getting worse there, and the people are getting angry.

We do NOT want the Chinese Communist Party ("CCP") to feel threatened by their own people.  They will start a war before the CCP would allow themselves to be overthrown.  The Chinese have some incredible weapons.  Last week a Chinese starship refueled one of their satellites in orbit.  That same starship can snatch enemy satellites out of orbit.  

But there is some good news on the war possibility front.  The Chinese have stopped work on new warship construction, including their latest aircraft carrier.  In Mongolia, they have stopped test firing new missiles.  Why?  They are out of dough.

Just wait until you get screwed out of a huge fee.
I went to law school so I didn't punch anyone.

Won't you please forward this to some investor buddies -
especially if they are invested in a hard money fund?

A teacher in Mississippi once wrote to Ann Landers, a very wise and popular newspaper columnist.  Ann Landers gave great advice to your parents for forty years.  The teacher wrote: 

Dear Ann Landers:

I am an English teacher, and my students are reading George Orwell's 1984.

I am having a difficult time explaining communism, socialism and fascism to my students without giving a full-blown, time-consuming history lesson.
I recall you printed a humorous column some time ago explaining these concepts using cows as examples. Will you please print it again for my students?

Dear Mississippi Teacher:

Thank you for asking.  It’s an “oldie,” but a “goldie.”  Here it is:

Socialism:  You have two cows.  Give one cow to your neighbor.

Communism:  You have two cows.  Give both cows to the government, and they may give you some of the milk.

Fascism: You have two cows.  You give all of the milk to the government, and the government sells it.

Nazism: You have two cows. The government shoots you and takes both cows.

Anarchism: You have two cows. Keep both of the cows, shoot the government agent and steal another cow.

Capitalism: You have two cows. Sell one cow and buy a bull.

Note to Bad Guys:  Indiana is an open carry state.  Anyone 18-and-over, other than a felon, can carry a gun, openly or concealed.

The money in this industry is in loan servicing fees.

I told you last month that Xi is falling from power.  Many of his loyal generals have been deposed and arrested for "corruption".  Several of his top generals then proceeded to "commit suicide" in padded cells.

This month Xi's opposition arrested two top admirals and the general in charge of China's Rocket Forces.  When arrested, two of these generals were literally shaking in their boots in terror.

The opposing general who has seized control of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is a guy named Zhang Youxia (pronounced shang-you-shah).  Over the past two months, Zhang has ousted about a dozen top army generals who were loyal to Xi Jinping.  This past week, two loyal Navy admirals and a Rocket Force general were deposed.

Even if you absolutely hate Donald Trump, he deserves kudos for ending the 12-Day War between Iran and Israel, ending the twenty-year war between the Congo and Rwanda, and working his butt off to end the Israeli-Hamas War.

But to my mind, the best thing he did was to sign a very kind trade deal with China.  He didn't sign the new trade deal with Xi Jinping but rather with the three old CCP leaders who are forcing Xi out.

Trump could have caused tremendous damage to the Chinese economy because technically Xi is still in charge, and he is playing hardball.  Trump gave the Chinese a tariff rate - not of 150% - not of 90% - and not of 40%.  Trump gave the Chinese an incredible gentle and generous tariff rate of just 20%.

By giving the Chinese a very kind and gentle tariff rate of just 20% - miles better than the 150% tariff rate that was being thrown about earlier - Trump took away Xi's excuse to attack Taiwan and our carriers.

Remember, the reason why the Japanese attacked us at Pearl Harbor was because we had embargoed their oil in 1941. 

Interesting note:  The first thing that Trump did after dropping those bunker busters was to announce to the world that the US would NOT interfere with Iranian oil exports to China.  Hate him if you will, but this President knows his history.