Why should you care if Russia loses the war in Ukraine? How do you think your retirement accounts would fare if Putin suddenly dropped several tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine? In the resulting panic and chaos, your fund managers would be forced to sell great stocks and great bonds for just 40 cents on the dollar in order to meet liquidity calls.
By losing the war, I am talking about Russia retreating entirely from Ukraine and Crimea. Russia does not even get to keep the Donbas. Donbas, an abbreviation for "Donets Coal Basin," is a historical, cultural, and economic region in eastern Ukraine, known for its rich coal deposits and industrial development.
The Donbas region comprises the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and is central to the Russo-Ukrainian War, having been occupied by Russia-backed separatists since 2014 and later illegally annexed by the Russian Federation. This strategic area has been the site of intense fighting and remains a war zone.
Please grasp what I am saying. Russia flat-out loses.
Ukraine has developed a domestically-made cruise missile called the Flamingo. Apparently there was an imperfection in the initial paint job, and the missiles came out pink. Hence, the name.
The Flamingo missile is a game changer. It can deliver a payload of 2,540 lb. That's more than a ton of explosives. In comparison, the US-made Tomahawk cruise missile only has a payload of 992 lb. The typical kamikaze drone carries only a 44 lb. payload.
The Flamingo is one big-ass missile.
The Flamingo also has a range of 1,864 miles. That's long enough to hit any target west of the Ural Mountains, where 78% of Russia's population and industrial might are located.
Ukraine is currently building several more Flamingo factories, and there is talk of Ukraine soon being able to build seven new Flamingo missiles per day. Per day! Imagine the havoc the country will be able to rain down on Russia's energy infrastructure and war factories. Already, something like 19% of Russia's refining capacity has been knocked out.
Why can't Russia just put air defense systems around each refinery? Russia only has 50 remaining S-400 air defense systems left, and they can only build around 5 new ones per year (if they can get the chips). Each S-400 system costs around $500 million wholesale.
Russia is also a huge country. It cannot defend every important national defense facility. Right now most of these S-400 systems are deployed protecting Russian cities. Much of Russia's remaining industrial might is largely unprotected.
The next great financial crisis is long past due.
Our servicing income is why we have survived 45 years.
Ukraine has been absolutely smashing Russia's energy infrastructure this month. There were reports of 4-hour (8-hour?) lines in Belarus for a two-gallon ration of gasoline.
Can't Russia just bomb Ukraine's Flamingo factory? I am sure that they have been trying, but the factory is underground. In addition, Ukraine is rushing to build clones of the factory in different underground locations. Russia's fuel plants and munitions factories now have a limited life expectancy. In a few months...
But wait, as they say in the Ronco commercials, there's more. Poland just cut off rail traffic from China to Europe. For the last several years, most of China's goods arrived in Europe by rail. No more, says the Poles. The Trans-Belarusian Railway is now closed until China stops aiding Russia in the war. If China were to cut off aid to Russia...
Now we get to the part when you sit up in alarm and pay attention. Putin knows he is losing the war. When India starts to feel the bite of an extra 25% import tariff from the US and soon Europe (far more costly than any cost savings from buying oil directly from Russia), it will stop buying Russian oil.
Xi Jinping, Putin's friend for life (the Asian version of BFF), may also soon be toppled from power. Zhang Youxia, the top general forcing Xi out of power, is not a big fan of Russia.
If Putin loses in Ukraine completely, he has too many enemies to survive. He is going to be voluntarily un-alived. Rather than risk being thrown out of a 12-story building, I suspect that Putin is going to drop several tactical nukes on Ukraine's Flamingo factory. It's what I would do, if I were a mass-murdering sociopath.
I still don't see what he did wrong...
If a nukes start dropping in Europe, I think I'd prefer
to be in real-estate-secured 12% first trust deeds.