Pre-Economic Depression Planning

George Blackburne — Fri, 20 Mar 2026 13:54:38 GMT

They Guillotined 16 Nuns

George Blackburne — Fri, 13 Mar 2026 12:44:43 GMT

World War III Has Been Canceled

George Blackburne — Wed, 11 Mar 2026 22:41:39 GMT

Trump's Proposed Mar-a-Lago Accord

George Blackburne — Mon, 23 Feb 2026 23:43:40 GMT

Huge News From China - Some Awful, Some Encouraging

George Blackburne — Thu, 29 Jan 2026 15:00:03 GMT

Why is the Ten-Year Treasury So Important?

George Blackburne — Mon, 26 Jan 2026 15:00:02 GMT

It's the Benchmark "Risk-Free" Rate

The 10-year Treasury is issued by the U.S. government, which has the world's strongest credit rating and the ability to print dollars. This makes it essentially risk-free in terms of default.

As a result, its yield serves as the foundational risk-free rate that almost everything else in finance gets priced relative to:

Corporate bonds
Municipal bonds
Emerging market debt
Stock valuations (via discount rates in DCF models)

When the 10-year yield rises, it generally means higher borrowing costs across the economy, and vice versa.

2. It Heavily Influences Mortgage Rates and Consumer Borrowing

Fixed-rate mortgages (especially 30-year ones) track the 10-year Treasury yield very closely — typically with a spread of 1.5–2% above it.

When the 10-year yield moves up, mortgage rates usually follow, affecting:

Home affordability
Refinancing activity
The housing market overall

Other consumer and business loans (auto loans, small business loans, etc.) are also indirectly influenced.

3. It's a Key Indicator of Economic Expectations

The 10-year Treasury bond yield reflects the market's collective view on:

Future inflation expectations (higher expected inflation → higher yields to compensate)
Expected economic growth (stronger growth → higher yields)
Federal Reserve policy trajectory

A sharply rising 10-year yield can signal overheating or inflation concerns, while a falling yield often points to economic slowdown fears, recession risks, or flight-to-safety buying.

4. The Yield Curve and Recession Signals

The spread between the 10-year yield and shorter-term yields (especially the 2-year Treasury) forms the famous yield curve.

An inverted curve (10-year yield below the 2-year) has been one of the most reliable recession predictors historically.

5. Impact on Stocks and Asset Prices

Higher 10-year yields increase the "opportunity cost" of holding stocks (since bonds become more attractive).

They also raise the discount rate used to value future corporate earnings → which pressures stock prices, especially for growth/tech stocks with long-duration cash flows.

67 Lessons in Commercial Mortgage Brokerage
Just $29
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In short: The 10-year Treasury yield acts as the anchor for global interest rates, a barometer of economic health, and a major driver of asset prices and borrowing costs worldwide. That's why financial headlines obsess over even small moves in it — a 0.1% or 0.2% change can ripple through markets significantly.

Why the US Abandoned the Gold Standard

George Blackburne — Sat, 24 Jan 2026 16:01:59 GMT

Net Worth For Stupid People Like Me

George Blackburne — Thu, 22 Jan 2026 13:00:01 GMT

There is one advantage to being dull and thick-headed like me. My disability forces me to learn advanced financial subjects in very simple terms. Now let's tackle the concept of Net Worth in laymen's language (baby language).

Finding Commercial Loans Using Social Media

George Blackburne — Thu, 15 Jan 2026 15:29:59 GMT

Dear Readers: The marketing suggestions that I will describe below will work for any industry which sells or provides services nationwide (lumber, women's shoes, etc.). You don't have to be in the commercial loan business.

Why I Bore You With News About China

George Blackburne — Wed, 03 Dec 2025 21:59:31 GMT

Commercial Loans and Fun Blog